Top five risks for the aviation sector in 2025

In fifth place, our respondents flagged the Shortage of skilled workforce. While this actually represents a new entrant on the top five risks list, few will be surprised at its inclusion. An issue for the industry since before Covid-19, aviation continues to battle with labor force limitations with demand far outstripping supply. The reasons for this are various but include significant numbers of retirements during the pandemic; a lack of appeal in the profession; insufficient training capacity to meet demand in any event; and the cost of training being unaffordable (in the case of flight crew). In a review of the position in April 2024, the Royal Aeronautical Society highlighted research [1] suggesting over the next 10 years 300,000 more pilots, 300,000 more maintenance engineers and 600,000 more cabin crew will be required. These targets are unlikely to be met. The shortage will affect everyone in the industry and will have the effect (as is almost always the case in a supply shortage) of pushing up costs via wages. This increase will of course force a market correction by making aviation jobs more appealing, however it is not one market participants welcome. Unfortunately, this risk looks like it is here to stay.

In fourth, surprisingly down from #1 in 2024 is Political risks and violence. Notwithstanding, the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East, we remain in a world beset by conflict – from the ongoing war in Ukraine to civil wars in Myanmar and Sudan. Throw in stateless terror organizations looking to exploit the disenfranchised and marginalized, and it is not surprising that political risk and violence remains a key risk for aviation in 2025. Civil aviation authorities and airlines must constantly dance on a tightrope to balance their potential security risks against the demand for provision of safe, commercially viable air travel for a global population that still wants to travel in greater numbers than ever before. Evolving geopolitical situations, along with new methods of waging war, require constant attention. With some companies struggling to find capacity to insure their hull values against war perils including strikes, riots and terrorism, Allianz stepped in and has offered Hull War insurance policies since 2023.

In third place, respondents are concerned about Changes in legislation and regulation. This is a new entrant on the list this year and is related (among other things) to the evolving landscape of sustainability requirements. This is likely to become even more the case with the shift in position of the US in relation to the Paris Agreement and environmental, social, and governance (ESG) regulation. Global aviation companies are in the unenviable position of having to comply with both European standards still focused on Net Zero by 2050 and a US government loosening requirements, at least in the short term. The implications of the European Union’s Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) are yet to be fully borne out. A regulatory framework to standardize sustainability reporting across industries, the CSRD is likely to add costs consequences for those needing to comply. With the complexity (and potential repercussions of misreporting) and a shifting regulatory landscape, it is therefore no surprise that such regulation is a key concern for those in the aviation sector.

Just off the top spot, in second place, is Business interruption – up from #5 a year ago. Linked to both the shortage of skilled labor and political instability, the fragility of aviation supply chains remains a significant concern for the industry. In something of a perfect storm, there have been both delays to new equipment delivery, but also problems with existing aircraft and engines requiring maintenance (and the potential grounding of aircraft as a result).

At number one, the risk most concerning the aviation industry in 2025 is Cyber incidents. Previously at #2 in 2024, the risk has made the jump to top position after a year with notable high-profile incidents such as the CrowdStrike outage in July, demonstrating the fragility of the global aviation industry’s technological reliance. Perhaps the reason for cyber incidents’ place at the summit can be put down to the truly enormous and varied threat such a term encompasses. Everything from cyber-crime, IT outages, malware / ransomware attacks, data breaches and the associated fines and penalties is included. This is not to mention the potential for malicious acts from hostile operators on actual flight operations, such as GPS spoofing – a sophisticated attack that actively exploits weaknesses in an aircraft’s navigation system and has become increasingly common in areas of geopolitical instability such as Eastern Europe and the Middle East. All told, aviation companies have a lot to worry about. Aside from any business interruption and cost of remediation, there is the risk of reputational damage, litigation from consumers, regulatory action and fines and ransom requests.

As the aviation industry continues its digital transformation journey, through the further integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and a significant transition to cloud infrastructure, maintaining robust cyber security while continuing to innovate remains a critical challenge. It is therefore no wonder that cyber risk is at the forefront of the aviation industry’s concerns for 2025.